How to Prepare for El Niño Weather

By Stephen Bennett and the Mercury Team

El Niño is officially back in 2026, and forecasters are keeping a close eye on the global weather patterns. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, this year’s El Niño may prove to be the strongest on record, which could influence rainfall, temperatures, and storm patterns across the United States.

“El Niño changes the risk picture in different parts of the country, which is why it is a good reminder to get ahead of the weather,” says Steve Bennett, Head of Climate and Catastrophe Science at Mercury Insurance. “For homeowners and drivers, this is the time to review coverage, take care of basic maintenance and make sure you are prepared before conditions change.”

Here’s what you need to know about this climate phenomenon and how to prepare for El Niño.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific run warmer than average. This seemingly small change can dramatically impact weather throughout the United States. Since 1950, there have been 27 of these phenomena, which usually occur every three to four years.

El Niño weather patterns may include:

Wetter and cooler-than-average conditions across much of the southern U.S.
Warmer-than-average conditions across much of the northern U.S.
Drier-than-average conditions in parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Fewer-than-average Atlantic hurricanes.

How El Niño Can Affect Weather Patterns in 2026

This particular 2026/2027 cycle is potentially poised to become a “Super El Niño,” meaning it could intensify into a stronger event. However, that does not mean every part of the country will be affected in the same way. El Niño shifts the odds for certain weather patterns, but the impacts will depend on the exact location and how individual storms develop day to day.

Here’s what that may mean for you, based on your area of the United States:

Texas and Oklahoma may experience fewer spring hail and tornado outbreaks, but storms are still inevitable.
The Southwest and California might see stormier patterns, including more rain and snow in winter. This can benefit water reservoirs but may also contribute to flooding and mudslide risks in steep terrain.
The Northern U.S., including Michigan, the Great Lakes, and Midwestern regions, may experience milder winter temperatures with less snow cover. Unlike its southern counterparts, the Northern regions may also have less rainfall.
The Pacific Northwest may see some drier conditions, though stronger systems can still deliver impactful storms, so time will tell. Lower elevations may experience more rain than snow come winter.
The South and East Coast, which hugs the Atlantic Ocean, may see reduced hurricane activity.

It’s important to remember that El Niño is best understood as a shift in the background odds, not a promise of what will happen in any particular town. That is why seasonal awareness matters, but local forecasts and real-time warnings matter even more.

How Storm Damage May Affect Your Home Insurance

El Niño weather and storm damage can put your homeowners insurance to the test. What is covered depends on your policy, including your limits, deductibles, and the types of damage your policy covers.

Damage from hazards such as wind, hail, and lightning is often covered, but not every storm-related loss is automatically included. Your deductible also affects how much you may have to pay out of pocket before coverage applies, especially if your policy has a separate wind or hurricane deductible.

Because repair and rebuilding costs can change over time, it is worth reviewing your policy before severe weather strikes. Making sure your coverage reflects your home’s features, current rebuilding costs, and the risks in your area can help you avoid costly gaps when you need protection most.

Conclusion

El Niño weather impacts can vary from year to year, but one thing is consistent: Preparation is key. Taking steps early can help protect your home, your vehicle, and the people and pets who depend on you. Mercury can help you with homeowners insurance options designed to fit your needs and offer guidance to help you feel more confident about your protection.

How to Prepare for El Niño Weather

The time before a storm arrives is your opportunity to get ahead of any potential damage. As El Niño develops, take some proactive steps to prepare: inspect your home, safeguard your vehicle, review your insurance coverage, and make sure your family and pets are covered by an emergency plan.

Step 1: Update your Homeowners Insurance and Inventory List

Homeowners insurance policies protect personal property, but many policyholders forget to update them. To get the most out of your insurance policy:

Review and update at least once a year.
Create an inventory list of your personal property and set a reminder to update it at least annually.
Document major purchases and renovations, and update coverage accordingly.

Taking all these steps helps ensure your coverage keeps pace with the cost to repair your home and replace valuable belongings after a storm.

Step 2: Look into National Flood Insurance

Standard homeowners insurance typically doesn’t cover flood or mudflow damage, so it’s important to explore flood protection as an option before severe weather heads your way. Even if you don’t live in a floodplain, you may consider flood insurance if:

You live in a drought- or fire-prone area with hillsides stripped of vegetation as a result. All it takes is heavy rains to weaken hillsides and create mudslides.
Flash flooding is a possibility in your area.
You live in a FEMA-designated floodplain or an area with lots of rain.

If your property is at risk, you can purchase a flood policy through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program.

Step 3: Create a Disaster Plan

The best way to prepare for potentially severe El Niño weather patterns comes down to planning.

Outline a communication strategy with your family, and ensure everyone knows it.
Plan out multiple evacuation routes if your home becomes unsafe.
Establish an emergency meeting location in case you have to leave.
Set aside at least three gallons of water per person for every 72 hours.
Create an emergency kit that includes nonperishable foods, batteries, phone chargers, and first-aid supplies. Download our full disaster kit checklist here.
Make sure you have at least three days of supplies, water, and food for pets.
Safely store all important documents in a fireproof or waterproof location. Make copies of documents you may need if you evacuate.

Step 4: Inspect your Roof

Your roof is one of your home’s first lines of defense during severe weather. Here are a few things to check before a storm rolls in:

Inspect your roof annually for wear and tear so you can address problems before they snowball.
Look for any obvious leaks in the ceiling of your home, water rings, or mold spots that might indicate possible roof damage.
Check your shingles for cracks in asphalt materials, wood dry rot, and any signs of rust or pitting in metal materials.
Inspect the flashings that cover gaps in the roof around your chimney, any dormers, or vent pipes.

Step 5: Flooding and Electrical Safety

Electricity and water aren’t a good combo, so if flooding is possible, take these electrical safety precautions:

Know your breaker box location, and ensure each breaker is clearly labeled.
Unplug appliances when not in use, and consider installing GFCI outlets, which automatically cut power if electricity flows through an unintended path.
Avoid flooded rooms with outlets or electrical boxes at ground level, at least until the utility company or fire department gives you the all-clear.
Never get near downed power lines and fallen tree limbs, which can conduct electricity.
Hire an electrician to evaluate post-flood damage and assess safety.

Step 6: Protect your Automobile

Your vehicle may be an important part of your emergency plan should a flood or other weather event occur. Here are a few ways to keep your vehicle secure and your family safe on the road:

Park away from flood-prone areas or find a higher spot, such as a parking deck.
Turn around; don’t drown! Always avoid driving in flooded areas.
Consider purchasing auto insurance with comprehensive coverage to protect your vehicle against flood damage.
Drive safely on slick roads, maintaining safe speeds and distances, braking safely, and using headlights.
Check tires and wipers for wear and tear before weather events, and replace as needed.

FAQs

Does El Niño cause more storms everywhere?

No, El Niño shifts storm patterns rather than increasing storms uniformly across all regions. Some areas may see more frequent or intense storms, while others may experience milder or drier conditions.

Can El Niño increase flooding risk?

Yes, El Niño can bring heavier, more frequent rainfall to certain regions, increasing the risk of flooding. That makes it especially important to check drainage, maintain your roof, and have an emergency plan in place.

Should I update my insurance before El Niño weather arrives?

Yes, reviewing your coverage before severe weather can help you understand what’s covered and what isn’t. Policy limits, deductibles, exclusions, and claim requirements all play a role once damage occurs.

Stephen Bennett

Senior Director, Climate and Catastrophe Science

Stephen Bennett is Senior Director of Mercury Insurance’s Climate and Catastrophe Science Division, where he leads the company’s strategy on climate risk and catastrophe modeling. With experience advising companies like Apple and Unilever, supporting weather-informed investment at Citadel, and quantifying storm risk at Demex, Bennett brings a deep background in climate science. He serves as a councilor of the American Meteorological Society, chairs its Forum on Climate Linked Economics, and teaches risk management at UNC Chapel Hill. He holds a BS in Meteorology from the University of South Alabama and a JD from the University of Illinois Chicago School of Law.